The most recent move is a continuation of a weeks long trend cutting ad spending in the Twin Cities
President Donald Trump has been pulling back spending in Minnesota, according to Advertising Analytics, which tracks campaign ad spending. Theo Keith, FOX9 reporter, reported that the Trump campaign slashed funding from $1.25 million to just $129,000 for ads in the Twin Cities TV market.
Although he has decreased spending, he has still continued to make trips here; before he was diagnosed with COVID-19, he was in Duluth, his second such stop to the Iron Range. Vice President Mike Pence also has made a few visits, his most recent one at the airport in Hibbing. Trump came within 1.5 points of winning Minnesota in 2016; a win would have made Trump the first Republican to win Minnesota since 1972.
Early on in the race, many pundits were suggesting that Minnesota was a swing state, citing early polling and Trump’s focus on carrying the Midwest. However, according to recent polling, Trump’s chances have declined or stayed roughly the same. Currently, as of October 27, 2020, Biden has a 9.2% lead, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages. The latest two polls, from Gravis Marketing and SurveyMonkey, has Biden up 53%-39%, and 56%-42%, respectively.
Of course, after watching what happened in 2016, polls still don’t guarantee anything; rather, they give a good, general idea of public opinion. Though polls accurately predicted the Clinton popular vote count, they missed the one that matters- the Electoral College. Many people still cite polls, including presidential campaigns, making polling a good metric for campaigns. A lack of good polling numbers may have contributed to Trump’s choice to decrease spending.
What does this mean if anything? Probably not a whole lot, especially if Trump and Pence continue to make visits to Minnesota over the next 7 days. Political ads do work, but generally don’t sway undecided voters. If I were in Trump’s campaign, I’m not sure if I would have agreed with this. Although Minnesota only has 10 electoral votes, I think a Trump victory would have been more important in the long term. It would have told the GOP that Minnesota is winnable on the federal level and would help them in the 2024 elections and even potentially the 2022 midterms.