For the first time since 2015, the Democrats have control over the Senate; but that isn’t a guarantee win for dems
As we all know now, the Democrats took control of the Senate after winning both run-off elections in Georgia. However, as we’ve seen in the early months of the Biden administration, a 50-50 Senate is still proving to be a challenge for Democrats. Although VP Harris is the “tie breaker” when the vote on a bill is 50-50, there have been a few Democrats that haven’t quite vowed loyalty to Biden.
I had a discussion with a friend who also is fairly affluent in politics, and he seemed pretty optimistic that a 50-50 senate would benefit democrats; I agreed, but with a caveat- it won’t be easy because of the factions within the Democratic party. So far, the Democrats have had a bit of resistance from inside their party.
In a world where polarization has been increasing, not decreasing, it’s pretty normal for senators and house members to with their respective party (generally called “party-line voting”: voting with your party on a specific bill). This remains the case in 2021, sans two Democratic Senators- Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).
For example, Manchin has stated that Biden’s proposed tax hike on corporations was not viable- “this whole thing here has to change”. Along with opposition to Biden’s tax hike, Manchin has also voiced his concerns with doing-away with the filibuster- in an opinion piece published in the Washington Post, he stated there was “no circumstance in which I will vote to eliminate or weaken the filibuster”. Manchin instead told party leaders that compromise, not changing/removing the filibuster, would be the better solution. However, in today’s political world, that may not be so easy; thanks in part to the filibuster, bills need 60 votes, which means 10 GOP senators would have to vote in conjunction with dems to pass major legislation (assuming all 50 dems vote “yes”).
Gathering 10-plus GOP votes will be a tall task- McConnell, Senate Minority Leader, has called himself the “Grim Reaper”. In an interview shortly after one of the Democratic Debates, he states “I understand my win is that I’ve been stopping left wing agenda items coming out of the House”. With McConnell being the master of the Senate he is, I don’t see him doing dems any favors going forward.
Next up is Senator Sinema, who has also supported the filibuster, stated to the Wall Street Journal that “I think the solution is for senators to change their behavior and begin to work together, which is what the country wants us to do”. Sinema has also cause some push-back from within the Democratic ranks, as well as her constituents, when she voted against including a federal minimum wage hike in the COVID-19 relief bill. Amongst Arizonians, raising the federal minimum wage was high, about 62% of voters support it.
Both Senators Manchin and Sinema are proving to be as difficult as the GOP. Biden and his administration, along with new Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, already knew this going into January of 2021. Manchin is perhaps the most centrist dem in the Senate. He’s pro coal and anti-abortion, two of the bigger issues according to dems. Manchin is definitely a thorn in the side of the Democratic party, but alas, he’s also very key to their future. He’s a key ally in a predominantly conservative state.
What will the next year or so mean for Democrats in the Senate? Little is known. With Biden proposing roughly $4 trillion in spending the past few months, it is proving hard that conservative democrats (such as Manchin and Sinema) will vote in accordance. Manchin and Sinema both have fairly moderate constituencies, and their voting record certainly isn’t that of an Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.
Of course, that doesn’t make it impossible either- if dems and the Biden Administration can convince a few moderate GOP Senators (Romney, Collins, Murkowski), it would nullify Manchin and Sinema. However, as aforementioned, in today’s political climate, bipartisanship is likely the last option.